Levadeiakos
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.30
Atromitos
29%
Fair odds 3.47
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Levadeiakos | Draw | Atromitos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Levadeiakos and Atromitos are rated almost level (1348 and 1339).
-
Home advantage Favours Levadeiakos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Levadeiakos's chance of winning and takes the same from Atromitos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Levadeiakos
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Levadeiakos score 0.8 a match against an average side (9th in Greek Super League); Atromitos concede 1.8 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Levadeiakos WDDLL, barely moved; Atromitos WLLLD, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Levadeiakos won 2, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LevadeiakosAtromitosLevadeiakos
3/10 over 2.5
3 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Atromitos
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Levadeiakos | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levadeiakos | 27%3.77 | 5%19.84 | 2%58.14 |
| Level | 15%6.46 | 17%5.95 | 11%8.74 |
| Atromitos | 2%47.17 | 5%21.23 | 16%6.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Levadeiakos wins3Atromitos wins- W Levadeiakos vs Atromitos 1-0
- D Atromitos vs Levadeiakos 2-2
- L Levadeiakos vs Atromitos 1-2
- L Atromitos vs Levadeiakos 2-1
- D Levadeiakos vs Atromitos 1-1
- L Atromitos vs Levadeiakos 1-0
- W Levadeiakos vs Atromitos 2-1
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Levadeiakos's side.