OFI Crete
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96Bookmakers 45%
Atromitos
24%
Fair odds 4.25Bookmakers 27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| OFI Crete | Draw | Atromitos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours OFI Crete
OFI Crete are rated 36 points above Atromitos (1376 to 1339), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours OFI Crete
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to OFI Crete's chance of winning and takes the same from Atromitos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours OFI Crete
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. OFI Crete score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Greek Super League); Atromitos concede 1.8 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours OFI Crete
OFI Crete WWWLL, gained 21 rating points; Atromitos WLLLD, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Atromitos
OFI Crete will have had 3 days' rest, Atromitos 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Atromitos
Bookmakers rate Atromitos higher than the model does: OFI Crete 45% against the model's 51%, Atromitos 27% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
OFI Crete won 3, drew 8 and lost 4 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OFI CreteAtromitosOFI Crete
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Atromitos
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 48%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | OFI Crete | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 27%3.70 | 3%31.55 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%4.94 | 15%6.76 | 7%14.27 |
| Atromitos | 4%24.04 | 7%15.13 | 16%6.17 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3OFI Crete wins4Atromitos wins- W Atromitos vs OFI Crete 1-2
- L OFI Crete vs Atromitos 1-3
- D Atromitos vs OFI Crete 0-0
- L OFI Crete vs Atromitos 1-2
- D Atromitos vs OFI Crete 0-0
- D OFI Crete vs Atromitos 1-1
- D OFI Crete vs Atromitos 0-0
- D Atromitos vs OFI Crete 1-1
- D OFI Crete vs Atromitos 1-1
- W Atromitos vs OFI Crete 2-3
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from OFI Crete's side.