RB Leipzig
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.71Bookmakers 65%
Augsburg
21%
Fair odds 4.78Bookmakers 17%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Best price on offer | 1.48 | 5.40 | 6.00 |
Team news
- Marc Guiu Out
- Assan Ouédraogo Out
- Max Finkgräfe Doubtful
- Antonio Nusa Doubtful
Maxime Estève reportedly recovered from a knock and was on the bench vs Man City; Tidiam Gomis is the cover if Nusa is out.
- Noahkai Banks Out
- Calvin Brackelmann Out
- Juma Bah Out
- Steve Mounié Out
- Tim Breithaupt Doubtful
Baum said the rest of the squad is available; Gouweleeuw, Matsima and Keitel are expected to be used at centre-back.
Allowing for this news: RB Leipzig 59%, draw 20%, Augsburg 21% (xG 2.29 – 1.32). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, fcaugsburg.de, augsburg-journal.de, sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig are rated 88 points above Augsburg (1569 to 1482), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours RB Leipzig
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to RB Leipzig's chance of winning and takes the same from Augsburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours RB Leipzig
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.3. RB Leipzig score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Bundesliga); Augsburg concede 1.4 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig LWWLL, barely moved; Augsburg LDLDL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Augsburg
RB Leipzig will have had 3 days' rest, Augsburg 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours RB Leipzig
Bookmakers rate RB Leipzig higher than the model does: RB Leipzig 65% against the model's 58%, Augsburg 17% against 21%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig won 6, drew 4 and lost 0 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RB LeipzigAugsburgRB Leipzig
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Augsburg
9/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 75%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | RB Leipzig | Draw | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 38%2.60 | 5%19.57 | 2%47.39 |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 11%9.51 | 8%12.21 |
| Augsburg | 3%29.41 | 4%23.53 | 11%9.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6RB Leipzig wins0Augsburg wins- W RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 2-1
- W Augsburg vs RB Leipzig 0-6
- D Augsburg vs RB Leipzig 0-0
- W RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 4-0
- D Augsburg vs RB Leipzig 2-2
- W RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 3-0
- W RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 3-2
- D Augsburg vs RB Leipzig 3-3
- W RB Leipzig vs Augsburg 4-0
- D Augsburg vs RB Leipzig 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from RB Leipzig's side.