Tirol
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96Bookmakers 36%
Austria Vienna
25%
Fair odds 4.04Bookmakers 37%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Tirol: 51% here, 36% with bookmakers; Austria Vienna: 25% here, 37% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tirol | Draw | Austria Vienna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna are rated 14 points above Tirol (1317 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tirol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tirol's chance of winning and takes the same from Austria Vienna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tirol
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Tirol score 0.8 a match against an average side (7th in Austrian Bundesliga); Austria Vienna concede 2.4 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tirol
Tirol LDWLL, lost 7 rating points; Austria Vienna LLLLD, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Austria Vienna
Bookmakers rate Austria Vienna higher than the model does: Tirol 36% against the model's 51%, Austria Vienna 37% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Austria Vienna
Tirol won 2, drew 4 and lost 7 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TirolAustria ViennaTirol
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/28
09/02
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Austria Vienna
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/02
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tirol | Draw | Austria Vienna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tirol | 30%3.31 | 4%24.51 | 1%80.65 |
| Level | 18%5.66 | 13%7.42 | 8%12.52 |
| Austria Vienna | 4%27.78 | 6%17.18 | 16%6.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Tirol wins7Austria Vienna wins- W Austria Vienna vs Tirol 0-1
- D Austria Vienna vs Tirol 0-0
- L Tirol vs Austria Vienna 2-3
- L Tirol vs Austria Vienna 0-2
- L Austria Vienna vs Tirol 3-0
- W Tirol vs Austria Vienna 1-0
- L Austria Vienna vs Tirol 3-0
- L Austria Vienna vs Tirol 2-0
- L Tirol vs Austria Vienna 0-2
- D Tirol vs Austria Vienna 0-0
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tirol's side.