Monaco
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58
Auxerre
16%
Fair odds 6.21
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Monaco
Monaco are rated 115 points above Auxerre (1578 to 1463), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Monaco
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Monaco's chance of winning and takes the same from Auxerre's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Monaco
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Monaco score 1.5 a match against an average side (2nd in Ligue 1); Auxerre concede 1.4 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Monaco WLDWL, lost 6 rating points; Auxerre LDWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Monaco
Monaco won 5, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MonacoAuxerreMonaco
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
11 conceded
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Auxerre
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 36%2.76 | 3%31.75 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.42 | 11%8.81 | 5%18.21 |
| Auxerre | 5%20.70 | 5%18.73 | 10%9.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Monaco wins0Auxerre wins- D Monaco vs Auxerre 2-2
- W Auxerre vs Monaco 1-2
- W Monaco vs Auxerre 4-2
- W Auxerre vs Monaco 0-3
- W Monaco vs Auxerre 3-2
- W Auxerre vs Monaco 2-3
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Monaco's side.