Benevento
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40Bookmakers 50%
Avellino
31%
Fair odds 3.24Bookmakers 24%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Benevento: 42% here, 50% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Benevento | Draw | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Best price on offer | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Avellino
Avellino are rated 24 points above Benevento (1357 to 1333), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Benevento
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Benevento's chance of winning and takes the same from Avellino's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Benevento
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Benevento score 0.9 a match against an average side (14th in Serie B); Avellino concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Benevento LDWDW, gained 15 rating points; Avellino WDLDW, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Benevento
Bookmakers rate Benevento higher than the model does: Benevento 50% against the model's 42%, Avellino 24% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BeneventoAvellinoBenevento
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Avellino
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Benevento | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 25%4.03 | 5%19.88 | 2%54.35 |
| Level | 15%6.59 | 17%6.05 | 12%8.31 |
| Avellino | 2%45.45 | 5%20.49 | 17%5.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.