Kawasaki Frontale
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.44
Avispa Fukuoka
13%
Fair odds 7.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale are rated 110 points above Avispa Fukuoka (1397 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Kawasaki Frontale's chance of winning and takes the same from Avispa Fukuoka's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.9. Kawasaki Frontale score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in J1 League); Avispa Fukuoka concede 2.1 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale LWWWL, barely moved; Avispa Fukuoka LLLLW, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale won 6, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Kawasaki FrontaleAvispa FukuokaKawasaki Frontale
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Avispa Fukuoka
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 34%2.96 | 2%66.23 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.64 | 9%11.22 | 3%36.50 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 9%11.64 | 7%14.53 | 10%10.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Kawasaki Frontale wins2Avispa Fukuoka wins- L Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-5
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-2
- W Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka 3-1
- D Avispa Fukuoka vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-1
- W Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka 4-2
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-3
- W Avispa Fukuoka vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-4
- W Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka 2-0
- L Avispa Fukuoka vs Kawasaki Frontale 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kawasaki Frontale's side.