Arbroath
34%
Fair odds 2.93Bookmakers 32%
Ayr
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.78Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arbroath | Draw | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ayr
Ayr are rated 42 points above Arbroath (1312 to 1269), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arbroath
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Arbroath's chance of winning and takes the same from Ayr's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Arbroath score 0.6 a match against an average side (10th in Scottish Championship); Ayr concede 1.8 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ayr
Arbroath LLLLL, lost 45 rating points; Ayr WLDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Ayr
Bookmakers rate Ayr higher than the model does: Arbroath 32% against the model's 34%, Ayr 39% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Ayr
Arbroath won 3, drew 8 and lost 6 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArbroathAyrArbroath
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Ayr
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 45%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arbroath | Draw | Ayr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 20%4.94 | 5%21.19 | 2%62.50 |
| Level | 13%7.76 | 19%5.24 | 13%7.58 |
| Ayr | 2%62.11 | 5%20.49 | 22%4.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Arbroath wins6Ayr wins- L Ayr vs Arbroath 2-0
- L Ayr vs Arbroath 1-0
- D Arbroath vs Ayr 1-1
- D Ayr vs Arbroath 1-1
- D Arbroath vs Ayr 1-1
- L Ayr vs Arbroath 5-0
- L Ayr vs Arbroath 2-0
- D Arbroath vs Ayr 0-0
- W Arbroath vs Ayr 2-1
- W Arbroath vs Ayr 2-0
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Arbroath's side.