Inverness C
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.99
Ayr
23%
Fair odds 4.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inverness C | Draw | Ayr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Inverness C
Inverness C are rated 11 points above Ayr (1322 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inverness C
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Inverness C's chance of winning and takes the same from Ayr's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inverness C
Expected goals 1.5 to 0.9. Inverness C score 0.8 a match against an average side (5th in Scottish Championship); Ayr concede 1.8 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Inverness C
Inverness C LWWLW, gained 15 rating points; Ayr WLDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Inverness C
Inverness C won 6, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Inverness CAyrInverness C
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Ayr
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inverness C | Draw | Ayr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness C | 28%3.57 | 3%28.99 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.10 | 16%6.06 | 8%13.28 |
| Ayr | 3%30.86 | 6%17.04 | 15%6.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Inverness C wins4Ayr wins- W Ayr vs Inverness C 1-3
- L Inverness C vs Ayr 1-2
- W Ayr vs Inverness C 1-3
- W Inverness C vs Ayr 3-1
- L Ayr vs Inverness C 1-0
- L Inverness C vs Ayr 1-2
- W Ayr vs Inverness C 1-2
- D Inverness C vs Ayr 2-2
- W Ayr vs Inverness C 0-1
- D Ayr vs Inverness C 2-2
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Inverness C's side.