Cruzeiro
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Bahia
21%
Fair odds 4.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro are rated 49 points above Bahia (1447 to 1398), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cruzeiro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cruzeiro's chance of winning and takes the same from Bahia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cruzeiro
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Cruzeiro score 1.0 a match against an average side (3rd in Brasileirão); Bahia concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro WWWLW, gained 15 rating points; Bahia WDLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro won 4, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CruzeiroBahiaCruzeiro
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/13
10/18
10/23
10/29
Bahia
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/15
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cruzeiro | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 32%3.14 | 3%32.68 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.17 | 14%7.11 | 6%17.61 |
| Bahia | 4%25.25 | 6%15.70 | 15%6.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Cruzeiro wins1Bahia wins- W Bahia vs Cruzeiro 1-2
- W Bahia vs Cruzeiro 1-2
- W Cruzeiro vs Bahia 3-0
- D Cruzeiro vs Bahia 1-1
- L Bahia vs Cruzeiro 4-1
- W Cruzeiro vs Bahia 3-0
- D Bahia vs Cruzeiro 2-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cruzeiro's side.