Gremio
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.74
Bahia
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gremio | Draw | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bahia
Bahia are rated 62 points above Gremio (1398 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gremio
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gremio's chance of winning and takes the same from Bahia's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Gremio score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in Brasileirão); Bahia concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Gremio WWLDD, gained 9 rating points; Bahia WDLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Gremio won 4, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GremioBahiaGremio
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/30
09/08
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/30
Bahia
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/15
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gremio | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 26%3.80 | 7%15.24 | 3%37.88 |
| Level | 10%10.44 | 16%6.25 | 14%7.39 |
| Bahia | 1%89.29 | 4%26.67 | 20%4.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Gremio wins4Bahia wins- D Bahia vs Gremio 1-1
- L Bahia vs Gremio 4-0
- W Gremio vs Bahia 1-0
- L Gremio vs Bahia 0-2
- L Bahia vs Gremio 1-0
- W Gremio vs Bahia 1-0
- W Bahia vs Gremio 1-2
- L Bahia vs Gremio 3-1
- W Gremio vs Bahia 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gremio's side.