Ath Madrid
25%
Fair odds 3.98Bookmakers 26%
Barcelona
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90Bookmakers 52%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ath Madrid | Draw | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| Best price on offer | 3.75 | 4.33 | 1.88 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barcelona
Barcelona are rated 121 points above Ath Madrid (1753 to 1632), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ath Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ath Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from Barcelona's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barcelona
Expected goals 1.4 to 2.0. Ath Madrid score 1.6 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga); Barcelona concede 0.9 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ath Madrid LWWDW, gained 6 rating points; Barcelona WWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Ath Madrid 26%, Barcelona 52%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Barcelona
Ath Madrid won 3, drew 0 and lost 9 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Ath MadridBarcelonaAth Madrid
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
5 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Barcelona
10/10 over 2.5
38 scored
15 conceded
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 72%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ath Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Madrid | 15%6.57 | 6%17.33 | 5%21.79 |
| Level | 9%11.66 | 11%8.73 | 19%5.31 |
| Barcelona | 2%59.88 | 4%23.87 | 30%3.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Ath Madrid wins9Barcelona wins- L Ath Madrid vs Barcelona 1-2
- W Barcelona vs Ath Madrid 0-2
- L Ath Madrid vs Barcelona 1-2
- L Barcelona vs Ath Madrid 3-1
- L Ath Madrid vs Barcelona 2-4
- W Barcelona vs Ath Madrid 1-2
- L Ath Madrid vs Barcelona 0-3
- L Barcelona vs Ath Madrid 1-0
- L Barcelona vs Ath Madrid 1-0
- L Ath Madrid vs Barcelona 0-1
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ath Madrid's side.