Sabah FK
4%
Fair odds 26.25
Barcelona
Model pick
89%
Fair odds 1.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sabah FK | Draw | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 4% | 7% | 89% |
| Elo model | 5% | 16% | 79% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barcelona
Barcelona are rated 402 points above Sabah FK (1753 to 1352), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sabah FK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 4 points to Sabah FK's chance of winning and takes the same from Barcelona's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barcelona
Expected goals 0.9 to 4.0. Sabah FK score 1.0 a match against an average side; Barcelona concede 0.9 (1st best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sabah FK LLWL, barely moved; Barcelona WWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sabah FKBarcelonaSabah FK
3/4 over 2.5
4 scored
10 conceded
09/10
10/13
10/20
11/04
Barcelona
10/10 over 2.5
38 scored
15 conceded
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-4
- 0-3
- 1-4
- 1-3
- 0-5
- 0-2
- 1-5
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sabah FK | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FK | 3%32.57 | 4%27.25 | 14%7.06 |
| Level | 1%— | 3%35.34 | 34%2.98 |
| Barcelona | 0%— | 0%— | 41%2.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.