Bradford
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82
Barnsley
20%
Fair odds 4.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bradford | Draw | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bradford
Bradford are rated 72 points above Barnsley (1361 to 1288), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bradford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bradford's chance of winning and takes the same from Barnsley's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bradford
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Bradford score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in League One); Barnsley concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bradford LDDWD, lost 6 rating points; Barnsley DLLLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BradfordBarnsleyBradford
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
6 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Barnsley
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bradford | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 30%3.39 | 3%30.58 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.56 | 15%6.79 | 7%14.39 |
| Barnsley | 4%24.88 | 6%17.06 | 13%7.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Bradford wins0Barnsley wins- D Barnsley vs Bradford 2-2
- D Bradford vs Barnsley 2-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bradford's side.