Wigan
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49
Barnsley
32%
Fair odds 3.08
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wigan | Draw | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Wigan and Barnsley are rated almost level (1283 and 1288).
-
Home advantage Favours Wigan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wigan's chance of winning and takes the same from Barnsley's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wigan
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Wigan score 0.7 a match against an average side (22nd in League One); Barnsley concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Wigan DWLLL, lost 8 rating points; Barnsley DLLLL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Wigan won 1, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WiganBarnsleyWigan
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Barnsley
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wigan | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 22%4.49 | 4%22.42 | 2%60.98 |
| Level | 16%6.31 | 16%6.18 | 12%8.53 |
| Barnsley | 3%37.45 | 6%17.92 | 20%5.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Wigan wins1Barnsley wins- D Barnsley vs Wigan 1-1
- D Wigan vs Barnsley 1-1
- D Wigan vs Barnsley 1-1
- W Barnsley vs Wigan 0-1
- D Barnsley vs Wigan 1-1
- L Wigan vs Barnsley 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wigan's side.