Barrow
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boston Utd | Draw | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 25% | 43% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Barrow
Barrow are rated 93 points above Boston Utd (1130 to 1037), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boston Utd
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Boston Utd's chance of winning and takes the same from Barrow's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barrow
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Boston Utd score 0.5 a match against an average side (15th in National League); Barrow concede 2.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barrow
Boston Utd WWLLL, lost 24 rating points; Barrow DWWWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Boston UtdBarrow
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Barrow
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boston Utd | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Utd | 20%5.01 | 6%15.95 | 4%27.03 |
| Level | 10%9.70 | 14%7.14 | 17%5.88 |
| Barrow | 2%64.10 | 4%24.39 | 23%4.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.