Gateshead
19%
Fair odds 5.29
Barrow
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.71
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gateshead | Draw | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 23% | 59% |
| Elo model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barrow
Barrow are rated 195 points above Gateshead (1130 to 935), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gateshead
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Gateshead's chance of winning and takes the same from Barrow's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barrow
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.0. Gateshead score 0.4 a match against an average side (26th in National League); Barrow concede 2.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barrow
Gateshead LLLLL, lost 26 rating points; Barrow DWWWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GatesheadBarrowGateshead
6/10 over 2.5
5 scored
26 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/31
Barrow
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-0
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gateshead | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead | 12%8.47 | 5%19.42 | 4%27.78 |
| Level | 6%15.48 | 13%7.89 | 19%5.23 |
| Barrow | 1%99.01 | 4%26.04 | 36%2.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.