Gillingham
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.20
Barrow
28%
Fair odds 3.53
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gillingham | Draw | Barrow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Team news
- Eli King Out
- Kadeem Harris Out
- Liam Gordon Out
Latest reports (22 Oct) said Will Goodwin, Zane Albarus and Sam Tabares were nearing fitness; no update found for this match. Nothing from the last three days found.
No absences reported
No recent Barrow injury or team news found; the club's injury page showed no injuries but is undated, and an older Scott Smith ACL report was found with no date.
Allowing for this news: Gillingham 49%, draw 26%, Barrow 25% (xG 1.63 – 1.12). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: kentonline.co.uk, kentonline.co.uk, gillinghamfcnews.co.uk, barrowafcnews.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gillingham
Gillingham are rated 44 points above Barrow (1174 to 1130), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gillingham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Gillingham's chance of winning and takes the same from Barrow's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gillingham
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Gillingham score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in League Two); Barrow concede 2.6 (7th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barrow
Gillingham WLDLW, gained 5 rating points; Barrow DWWWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Gillingham won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GillinghamBarrowGillingham
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Barrow
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gillingham | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 27%3.73 | 5%19.72 | 2%51.28 |
| Level | 17%6.02 | 15%6.50 | 12%8.61 |
| Barrow | 3%39.53 | 5%21.01 | 15%6.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Gillingham wins3Barrow wins- W Barrow vs Gillingham 0-1
- D Gillingham vs Barrow 2-2
- L Barrow vs Gillingham 3-0
- W Gillingham vs Barrow 2-0
- W Gillingham vs Barrow 3-0
- L Barrow vs Gillingham 2-0
- L Barrow vs Gillingham 2-1
- D Gillingham vs Barrow 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gillingham's side.