Thun
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82Bookmakers 44%
Basel
24%
Fair odds 4.20Bookmakers 32%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Thun: 55% here, 44% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Thun | Draw | Basel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Thun
Thun are rated 15 points above Basel (1363 to 1348), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Thun
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Thun's chance of winning and takes the same from Basel's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Thun
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.4. Thun score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in Swiss Super League); Basel concede 2.1 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Thun
Thun WWLLL, gained 9 rating points; Basel LDLLW, lost 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Basel
Thun will have had 3 days' rest, Basel 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Basel
Bookmakers rate Basel higher than the model does: Thun 44% against the model's 55%, Basel 32% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Thun won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ThunBaselThun
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
23 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/16
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Basel
9/10 over 2.5
17 scored
21 conceded
08/09
08/22
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Thun | Draw | Basel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thun | 30%3.35 | 4%25.25 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 20%4.94 | 11%9.42 | 8%12.12 |
| Basel | 5%18.62 | 6%17.30 | 14%7.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Thun wins3Basel wins- L Basel vs Thun 4-2
- L Basel vs Thun 3-1
- W Thun vs Basel 3-1
- W Basel vs Thun 1-2
- L Thun vs Basel 1-3
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Thun's side.