Lille
16%
Fair odds 6.28Bookmakers 12%
Bayern Munich
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53Bookmakers 72%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lille | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 57% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| Best price on offer | 9.10 | 6.38 | 1.35 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are rated 212 points above Lille (1772 to 1560), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lille
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Lille's chance of winning and takes the same from Bayern Munich's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bayern Munich
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.5. Lille score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Ligue 1); Bayern Munich concede 0.9 (1st best defence in Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bayern Munich
Lille DWDLD, barely moved; Bayern Munich WDWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Bayern Munich
Bookmakers rate Bayern Munich higher than the model does: Lille 12% against the model's 16%, Bayern Munich 72% against 65%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LilleBayern MunichLille
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Bayern Munich
9/10 over 2.5
34 scored
12 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 72%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lille | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 10%9.55 | 6%16.84 | 7%14.12 |
| Level | 5%20.08 | 9%10.67 | 25%4.02 |
| Bayern Munich | 1%— | 3%37.74 | 34%2.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.