Sampdoria
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.35
Benevento
29%
Fair odds 3.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sampdoria | Draw | Benevento | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Benevento
Benevento are rated 30 points above Sampdoria (1333 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sampdoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sampdoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Benevento's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sampdoria
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Sampdoria score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in Serie B); Benevento concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Benevento
Sampdoria WLDLL, lost 11 rating points; Benevento LDWDW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SampdoriaBeneventoSampdoria
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Benevento
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sampdoria | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 25%3.95 | 5%20.33 | 2%59.88 |
| Level | 16%6.39 | 17%5.79 | 12%8.54 |
| Benevento | 2%47.17 | 5%20.88 | 17%6.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.