Estrela
13%
Fair odds 7.55Bookmakers 10%
Benfica
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.49Bookmakers 75%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Estrela | Draw | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 13% | 19% | 67% |
| Elo model | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 10% | 16% | 75% |
| Best price on offer | 12.50 | 6.50 | 1.28 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Benfica
Benfica are rated 296 points above Estrela (1715 to 1419), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Estrela
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Estrela's chance of winning and takes the same from Benfica's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Benfica
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.2. Estrela score 1.1 a match against an average side (13th in Primeira Liga); Benfica concede 0.8 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Benfica
Estrela LLLLD, lost 34 rating points; Benfica WWWWW, gained 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Estrela
Benfica will have had 3 days' rest, Estrela 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Benfica
Bookmakers rate Benfica higher than the model does: Estrela 10% against the model's 13%, Benfica 75% against 67%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Benfica
Estrela won 0, drew 0 and lost 6 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EstrelaBenficaEstrela
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Benfica
7/10 over 2.5
26 scored
8 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/15
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 66%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Estrela | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 8%12.35 | 5%20.70 | 5%20.66 |
| Level | 5%20.79 | 11%9.15 | 24%4.08 |
| Benfica | 1%— | 3%34.97 | 38%2.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Estrela wins6Benfica wins- L Benfica vs Estrela 4-0
- L Estrela vs Benfica 0-1
- L Estrela vs Benfica 2-3
- L Benfica vs Estrela 1-0
- L Estrela vs Benfica 1-4
- L Benfica vs Estrela 2-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Estrela's side.