Viktoria Plzen
17%
Fair odds 5.89Bookmakers 18%
Benfica
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.64Bookmakers 63%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Viktoria Plzen | Draw | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Elo model | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 20% | 63% |
| Best price on offer | 5.78 | 4.87 | 1.53 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Benfica
Benfica are rated 229 points above Viktoria Plzen (1715 to 1486), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Viktoria Plzen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Viktoria Plzen's chance of winning and takes the same from Benfica's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Benfica
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.0. Viktoria Plzen score 1.2 a match against an average side; Benfica concede 0.8 (2nd best defence in Primeira Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Benfica
Viktoria Plzen WLLLD, lost 25 rating points; Benfica WWWWW, gained 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Viktoria Plzen 18%, Benfica 63%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Viktoria PlzenBenficaViktoria Plzen
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
11/27
12/11
01/22
01/29
02/19
02/26
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
Benfica
7/10 over 2.5
26 scored
8 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/15
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Viktoria Plzen | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Plzen | 11%9.08 | 6%17.92 | 5%22.17 |
| Level | 6%17.76 | 13%7.97 | 22%4.47 |
| Benfica | 1%— | 3%32.26 | 35%2.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.