Konyaspor
26%
Fair odds 3.92
Besiktas
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Konyaspor | Draw | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Besiktas
Besiktas are rated 131 points above Konyaspor (1596 to 1465), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Konyaspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Konyaspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Besiktas's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Besiktas
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Konyaspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (19th in Süper Lig); Besiktas concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Konyaspor LWLDD, barely moved; Besiktas LDWDL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Besiktas
Konyaspor won 2, drew 2 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KonyasporBesiktasKonyaspor
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
13 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/30
Besiktas
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
16 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Konyaspor | Draw | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | 15%6.61 | 5%18.52 | 3%29.50 |
| Level | 9%10.73 | 14%7.24 | 18%5.56 |
| Besiktas | 2%64.52 | 4%22.52 | 29%3.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Konyaspor wins6Besiktas wins- L Besiktas vs Konyaspor 2-1
- L Konyaspor vs Besiktas 0-2
- W Konyaspor vs Besiktas 1-0
- L Besiktas vs Konyaspor 2-0
- L Besiktas vs Konyaspor 2-0
- L Konyaspor vs Besiktas 0-2
- D Besiktas vs Konyaspor 3-3
- L Konyaspor vs Besiktas 1-2
- D Besiktas vs Konyaspor 1-1
- W Konyaspor vs Besiktas 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Konyaspor's side.