Elche
37%
Fair odds 2.70Bookmakers 29%
Betis
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.67Bookmakers 45%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Elche | Draw | Betis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Best price on offer | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Betis
Betis are rated 119 points above Elche (1583 to 1464), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Elche
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Elche's chance of winning and takes the same from Betis's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.5. Elche score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in La Liga); Betis concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Elche
Elche LWDDW, gained 30 rating points; Betis LWDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Elche
Betis will have had 4 days' rest, Elche 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Betis
Bookmakers rate Betis higher than the model does: Elche 29% against the model's 37%, Betis 45% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Betis
Elche won 1, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ElcheBetisElche
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/23
09/07
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Betis
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Elche | Draw | Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 22%4.59 | 5%19.57 | 2%42.37 |
| Level | 13%7.56 | 14%7.08 | 13%7.70 |
| Betis | 3%39.84 | 5%18.69 | 23%4.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Elche wins4Betis wins- L Betis vs Elche 2-1
- D Elche vs Betis 1-1
- L Elche vs Betis 2-3
- L Betis vs Elche 3-0
- W Betis vs Elche 0-1
- L Elche vs Betis 0-3
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Elche's side.