Sevilla
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Betis
37%
Fair odds 2.74
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sevilla | Draw | Betis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Betis
Betis are rated 115 points above Sevilla (1583 to 1468), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sevilla
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sevilla's chance of winning and takes the same from Betis's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.5. Sevilla score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in La Liga); Betis concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sevilla LWLDL, lost 10 rating points; Betis LWDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sevilla won 3, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SevillaBetisSevilla
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Betis
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sevilla | Draw | Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 23%4.37 | 5%18.48 | 3%39.53 |
| Level | 13%7.65 | 14%7.03 | 13%7.53 |
| Betis | 2%43.10 | 5%19.92 | 21%4.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sevilla wins2Betis wins- D Betis vs Sevilla 2-2
- L Sevilla vs Betis 0-2
- L Betis vs Sevilla 2-1
- W Sevilla vs Betis 1-0
- D Betis vs Sevilla 1-1
- D Sevilla vs Betis 1-1
- D Sevilla vs Betis 0-0
- D Betis vs Sevilla 1-1
- W Sevilla vs Betis 2-1
- W Betis vs Sevilla 0-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sevilla's side.