Standard
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23Bookmakers 48%
Beveren
29%
Fair odds 3.43Bookmakers 26%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Standard | Draw | Beveren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 2.00 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Team news
- Marlon Fossey Out
- Dimitri Lavalée Doubtful
- Josué Homawoo Out
Matthieu Epolo returns from concussion in goal, so he is not an absence; Henry Lawrence is expected to replace Fossey at right-back.
- Léandre Kuavita Out
- Kurt Abrahams Out
- Johannes Schenk Doubtful
Sources conflict on Beveren's injury list and the most recent lineup reports (Walfoot, 6 Nov) name Schenk in goal; little recent verified news found.
Allowing for this news: Standard 45%, draw 26%, Beveren 29% (xG 1.61 – 1.25). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: walfoot.be, walfoot.be, voetbalfocus.be, voetbalnieuws.be
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Standard
Standard are rated 19 points above Beveren (1493 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Standard
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Standard's chance of winning and takes the same from Beveren's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Standard
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Standard score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Belgian Pro League); Beveren concede 1.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Beveren
Standard DLLLL, lost 32 rating points; Beveren LDLLW, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Standard
Bookmakers rate Standard higher than the model does: Standard 48% against the model's 45%, Beveren 26% against 29%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StandardBeverenStandard
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/25
10/31
Beveren
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Standard | Draw | Beveren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 27%3.69 | 5%19.42 | 2%50.76 |
| Level | 16%6.37 | 15%6.63 | 11%8.78 |
| Beveren | 2%40.32 | 5%20.62 | 16%6.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.