Holstein Kiel
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49Bookmakers 39%
Bielefeld
33%
Fair odds 2.99Bookmakers 34%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Bielefeld | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bielefeld
Bielefeld are rated 12 points above Holstein Kiel (1352 to 1340), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Holstein Kiel
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Holstein Kiel's chance of winning and takes the same from Bielefeld's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Holstein Kiel score 0.9 a match against an average side (17th in 2. Bundesliga); Bielefeld concede 1.7 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel LWDLD, lost 5 rating points; Bielefeld WLWWD, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Holstein Kiel 39%, Bielefeld 34%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel won 0, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Holstein KielBielefeldHolstein Kiel
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/25
11/01
Bielefeld
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 26%3.85 | 6%17.15 | 2%40.98 |
| Level | 13%7.82 | 15%6.59 | 13%7.77 |
| Bielefeld | 2%53.19 | 4%22.37 | 19%5.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Holstein Kiel wins3Bielefeld wins- D Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel 2-2
- L Holstein Kiel vs Bielefeld 0-2
- L Holstein Kiel vs Bielefeld 2-3
- L Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel 4-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Holstein Kiel's side.