Burnley
28%
Fair odds 3.54
Birmingham
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burnley | Draw | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Birmingham
Birmingham are rated 90 points above Burnley (1524 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Burnley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Burnley's chance of winning and takes the same from Birmingham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Birmingham
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Burnley score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Championship); Birmingham concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Birmingham
Burnley DDLLD, lost 20 rating points; Birmingham WWLWW, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BurnleyBirminghamBurnley
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/24
10/31
11/03
Birmingham
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burnley | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 19%5.16 | 7%14.73 | 4%25.38 |
| Level | 8%12.00 | 15%6.78 | 18%5.48 |
| Birmingham | 1%99.01 | 3%28.82 | 24%4.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Burnley wins0Birmingham wins- W Burnley vs Birmingham 3-0
- D Birmingham vs Burnley 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Burnley's side.