Stoke
30%
Fair odds 3.32
Birmingham
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.36
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stoke | Draw | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Birmingham
Birmingham are rated 67 points above Stoke (1524 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stoke
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stoke's chance of winning and takes the same from Birmingham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Birmingham
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Stoke score 1.1 a match against an average side (18th in Championship); Birmingham concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Birmingham
Stoke WWDWL, gained 16 rating points; Birmingham WWLWW, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Stoke won 2, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StokeBirminghamStoke
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Birmingham
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stoke | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 20%4.88 | 7%15.20 | 3%30.30 |
| Level | 9%10.92 | 16%6.13 | 17%5.78 |
| Birmingham | 1%99.01 | 4%28.17 | 22%4.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Stoke wins2Birmingham wins- D Birmingham vs Stoke 1-1
- W Stoke vs Birmingham 1-0
- L Stoke vs Birmingham 1-2
- W Birmingham vs Stoke 1-3
- D Birmingham vs Stoke 0-0
- L Stoke vs Birmingham 1-2
- D Stoke vs Birmingham 2-2
- D Birmingham vs Stoke 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stoke's side.