Burnley
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22
Blackburn
28%
Fair odds 3.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burnley | Draw | Blackburn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackburn
Blackburn are rated 11 points above Burnley (1445 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Burnley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Burnley's chance of winning and takes the same from Blackburn's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Burnley
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Burnley score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Championship); Blackburn concede 1.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Burnley DDLLD, lost 20 rating points; Blackburn LLWLW, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Burnley
Burnley won 3, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BurnleyBlackburnBurnley
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/24
10/31
11/03
Blackburn
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burnley | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 28%3.60 | 5%19.72 | 2%57.14 |
| Level | 16%6.41 | 16%6.25 | 11%9.11 |
| Blackburn | 2%44.25 | 5%21.05 | 16%6.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Burnley wins0Blackburn wins- W Blackburn vs Burnley 0-1
- D Burnley vs Blackburn 1-1
- W Blackburn vs Burnley 0-1
- W Burnley vs Blackburn 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Burnley's side.