Watford
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58
Blackburn
33%
Fair odds 3.00
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Watford | Draw | Blackburn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackburn
Blackburn are rated 56 points above Watford (1445 to 1389), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Watford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Watford's chance of winning and takes the same from Blackburn's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Watford score 1.0 a match against an average side (20th in Championship); Blackburn concede 1.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Watford WLLWL, barely moved; Blackburn LLWLW, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Blackburn
Watford won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WatfordBlackburnWatford
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Blackburn
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Watford | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 23%4.32 | 5%20.58 | 2%57.80 |
| Level | 14%7.09 | 17%5.95 | 12%8.30 |
| Blackburn | 2%47.39 | 5%19.46 | 20%4.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Watford wins4Blackburn wins- D Blackburn vs Watford 1-1
- L Watford vs Blackburn 0-1
- L Blackburn vs Watford 2-1
- W Watford vs Blackburn 1-0
- W Blackburn vs Watford 1-2
- L Watford vs Blackburn 0-1
- D Watford vs Blackburn 1-1
- L Blackburn vs Watford 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Watford's side.