AFC Wimbledon
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Blackpool
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.74
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Blackpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackpool
Blackpool are rated 69 points above AFC Wimbledon (1316 to 1247), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AFC Wimbledon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to AFC Wimbledon's chance of winning and takes the same from Blackpool's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. AFC Wimbledon score 0.6 a match against an average side (24th in League One); Blackpool concede 2.0 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
AFC Wimbledon LDLLL, lost 27 rating points; Blackpool DLWLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AFC WimbledonBlackpoolAFC Wimbledon
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/02
09/07
09/12
09/17
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Blackpool
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 21%4.81 | 5%19.61 | 2%45.66 |
| Level | 14%7.27 | 16%6.11 | 14%7.09 |
| Blackpool | 2%48.31 | 5%20.24 | 21%4.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2AFC Wimbledon wins0Blackpool wins- W AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool 4-1
- W Blackpool vs AFC Wimbledon 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from AFC Wimbledon's side.