Blackpool
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hornchurch | Draw | Blackpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 20% | 67% |
| Elo model | 11% | 22% | 67% |
Team news
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension news found for Hornchurch in the last few days; coverage was limited to the cup tie preview.
- Fraser Horsfall Out
- CJ Hamilton Doubtful
- Niall Ennis Doubtful
Dale Taylor is fit and available again; Evatt says the side is treating the tie like any other match.
Allowing for this news: Hornchurch 13%, draw 19%, Blackpool 68% (xG 0.90 – 2.26). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: blackpoolfc.co.uk, blackpoolgazette.co.uk, bloomfieldbulletin.substack.com, blackpoolgazette.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackpool
Blackpool are rated 287 points above Hornchurch (1316 to 1029), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hornchurch
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Hornchurch's chance of winning and takes the same from Blackpool's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Blackpool
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.2. Hornchurch score 0.5 a match against an average side (21st in National League); Blackpool concede 2.0 (21st best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hornchurch LLLWL, lost 22 rating points; Blackpool DLWLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HornchurchBlackpool
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/30
Blackpool
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hornchurch | Draw | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch | 7%14.03 | 4%27.78 | 3%33.78 |
| Level | 6%17.18 | 11%9.06 | 19%5.16 |
| Blackpool | 1%87.72 | 4%24.10 | 45%2.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.