St Pauli
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98
Bochum
24%
Fair odds 4.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Pauli | Draw | Bochum | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Pauli
St Pauli are rated 34 points above Bochum (1391 to 1356), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St Pauli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St Pauli's chance of winning and takes the same from Bochum's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St Pauli
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. St Pauli score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in 2. Bundesliga); Bochum concede 1.6 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
St Pauli LDDWD, lost 5 rating points; Bochum WDLLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
St PauliBochumSt Pauli
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bochum
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/07
08/14
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Pauli | Draw | Bochum |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Pauli | 33%3.04 | 5%19.49 | 2%61.73 |
| Level | 16%6.29 | 15%6.66 | 9%10.58 |
| Bochum | 2%44.25 | 4%22.62 | 13%7.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0St Pauli wins2Bochum wins- L St Pauli vs Bochum 0-2
- L Bochum vs St Pauli 1-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Pauli's side.