Molde
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.35
Bodo/Glimt
35%
Fair odds 2.84
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Molde | Draw | Bodo/Glimt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Elo model | 21% | 26% | 52% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt are rated 176 points above Molde (1614 to 1438), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Molde
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Molde's chance of winning and takes the same from Bodo/Glimt's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Molde
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.8. Molde score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Eliteserien); Bodo/Glimt concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Molde LWWDL, barely moved; Bodo/Glimt DWLLW, lost 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Molde won 3, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MoldeBodo/GlimtMolde
9/10 over 2.5
31 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bodo/Glimt
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 3-2
- 2-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Molde | Draw | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 26%3.90 | 6%16.84 | 4%25.51 |
| Level | 14%7.06 | 11%9.03 | 14%7.20 |
| Bodo/Glimt | 3%32.47 | 5%22.08 | 18%5.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Molde wins3Bodo/Glimt wins- W Bodo/Glimt vs Molde 0-1
- L Bodo/Glimt vs Molde 4-1
- D Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 2-2
- D Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 3-3
- D Bodo/Glimt vs Molde 1-1
- L Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 1-3
- D Bodo/Glimt vs Molde 2-2
- W Bodo/Glimt vs Molde 1-4
- W Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 3-1
- L Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 0-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Molde's side.