Tromso
24%
Fair odds 4.23Bookmakers 13%
Bodo/Glimt
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86Bookmakers 69%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Tromso: 24% here, 13% with bookmakers; Bodo/Glimt: 54% here, 69% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tromso | Draw | Bodo/Glimt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| Best price on offer | 7.50 | 5.50 | 1.37 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt are rated 214 points above Tromso (1614 to 1400), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tromso
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Tromso's chance of winning and takes the same from Bodo/Glimt's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bodo/Glimt
Expected goals 1.3 to 2.0. Tromso score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Eliteserien); Bodo/Glimt concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Tromso LLDDW, lost 22 rating points; Bodo/Glimt DWLLW, lost 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bookmakers rate Bodo/Glimt higher than the model does: Tromso 13% against the model's 24%, Bodo/Glimt 69% against 54%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Tromso won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TromsoBodo/GlimtTromso
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
08/02
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bodo/Glimt
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tromso | Draw | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 18%5.41 | 9%11.31 | 8%12.20 |
| Level | 5%19.84 | 11%9.17 | 23%4.32 |
| Bodo/Glimt | 1%— | 2%49.02 | 23%4.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Tromso wins4Bodo/Glimt wins- L Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso 5-0
- D Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso 1-1
- W Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2-1
- D Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 0-0
- L Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso 4-0
- W Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso 0-2
- L Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2-3
- W Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 3-2
- D Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso 1-1
- L Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tromso's side.