Venezia
31%
Fair odds 3.26
Bologna
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.35
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Venezia | Draw | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bologna
Bologna are rated 112 points above Venezia (1541 to 1429), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Venezia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Venezia's chance of winning and takes the same from Bologna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bologna
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Venezia score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in Serie A); Bologna concede 1.1 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bologna
Venezia LLLWL, lost 9 rating points; Bologna WWWLW, gained 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Venezia won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VeneziaBolognaVenezia
3/10 over 2.5
6 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bologna
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Venezia | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 18%5.68 | 5%19.65 | 3%39.84 |
| Level | 12%8.50 | 16%6.40 | 16%6.39 |
| Bologna | 2%53.19 | 5%20.24 | 25%4.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Venezia wins2Bologna wins- L Venezia vs Bologna 0-1
- L Bologna vs Venezia 3-0
- W Venezia vs Bologna 4-3
- W Bologna vs Venezia 0-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Venezia's side.