Derby
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.66Bookmakers 36%
Bolton
37%
Fair odds 2.73Bookmakers 38%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Derby | Draw | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.58 |
Team news
- Sammie Szmodics Out
- Eiran Cashin Out
- Sondre Langas Out
- Craig Forsyth Out
- Derry Murkin Out
- Charlie Taylor Out
- David Ozoh Doubtful
- Joe Ward Doubtful
- Ryan Hedges Doubtful
Patrick Agyemang and Matt Clarke are back in training but their availability is unclear, so they are not listed as absences; one preview says Ward, Hedges and Ozoh are expected to miss, while others list them as doubtful.
- Gavin Bazunu Doubtful
- Eoin Toal Out
- Ethan Erhahon Out
- Ryan Hardie Out
- John McAtee Out
- Jayden Nelson Out
- Josh Sheehan Doubtful
Atsuki Ito had cramp after the Charlton game and is available for selection, so he is not listed as an absence.
Allowing for this news: Derby 34%, draw 26%, Bolton 40% (xG 1.39 – 1.54). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sports.yahoo.com, sportsmole.co.uk, thehardtackle.com, newsbeep.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Derby
Derby are rated 11 points above Bolton (1406 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Derby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Derby's chance of winning and takes the same from Bolton's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Derby score 0.9 a match against an average side (22nd in Championship); Bolton concede 1.6 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bolton
Derby LLDLL, lost 41 rating points; Bolton WLLDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Derby 36%, Bolton 38%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Derby won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DerbyBoltonDerby
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
22 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bolton
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Derby | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 24%4.13 | 6%15.92 | 3%31.45 |
| Level | 12%8.29 | 14%6.94 | 15%6.77 |
| Bolton | 2%55.87 | 4%23.87 | 19%5.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Derby wins1Bolton wins- W Derby vs Bolton 1-0
- L Bolton vs Derby 2-1
- W Derby vs Bolton 2-1
- D Bolton vs Derby 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Derby's side.