Southend
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.60
Boreham Wood
37%
Fair odds 2.70
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Southend | Draw | Boreham Wood | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood are rated 76 points above Southend (1226 to 1150), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Southend
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Southend's chance of winning and takes the same from Boreham Wood's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Southend score 0.7 a match against an average side (3rd in National League); Boreham Wood concede 2.3 (1st best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Boreham Wood
Southend LDDWW, barely moved; Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Boreham Wood
Southend won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SouthendBoreham WoodSouthend
9/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/24
10/31
Boreham Wood
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
9 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/09
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Southend | Draw | Boreham Wood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 26%3.90 | 7%14.41 | 4%24.21 |
| Level | 11%8.73 | 13%7.78 | 15%6.46 |
| Boreham Wood | 2%56.82 | 4%26.46 | 18%5.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Southend wins4Boreham Wood wins- L Southend vs Boreham Wood 0-2
- D Boreham Wood vs Southend 1-1
- W Southend vs Boreham Wood 4-2
- D Boreham Wood vs Southend 1-1
- L Boreham Wood vs Southend 1-0
- L Southend vs Boreham Wood 0-1
- W Southend vs Boreham Wood 1-0
- L Boreham Wood vs Southend 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Southend's side.