Yeovil
27%
Fair odds 3.66
Boreham Wood
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.09
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Yeovil | Draw | Boreham Wood | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood are rated 158 points above Yeovil (1226 to 1068), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Yeovil
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Yeovil's chance of winning and takes the same from Boreham Wood's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Boreham Wood
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.7. Yeovil score 0.6 a match against an average side (11th in National League); Boreham Wood concede 2.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Yeovil LWLWW, gained 30 rating points; Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Boreham Wood
Yeovil won 0, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
YeovilBoreham WoodYeovil
6/10 over 2.5
23 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/24
10/31
Boreham Wood
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
9 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/09
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Yeovil | Draw | Boreham Wood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil | 15%6.83 | 5%21.65 | 3%37.59 |
| Level | 11%9.13 | 14%7.24 | 16%6.23 |
| Boreham Wood | 2%46.08 | 5%18.66 | 30%3.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Yeovil wins4Boreham Wood wins- L Boreham Wood vs Yeovil 3-2
- L Yeovil vs Boreham Wood 0-3
- L Boreham Wood vs Yeovil 1-0
- D Yeovil vs Boreham Wood 1-1
- D Yeovil vs Boreham Wood 2-2
- L Boreham Wood vs Yeovil 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Yeovil's side.