Carlisle
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.43
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carlisle | Draw | Boston Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Carlisle
Carlisle are rated 131 points above Boston Utd (1169 to 1037), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carlisle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Carlisle's chance of winning and takes the same from Boston Utd's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carlisle
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.0. Carlisle score 0.7 a match against an average side (2nd in National League); Boston Utd concede 3.4 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Carlisle
Carlisle WWWDW, gained 33 rating points; Boston Utd WWLLL, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CarlisleBoston UtdCarlisle
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/28
10/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carlisle | Draw | Boston Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 42%2.38 | 3%35.71 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.36 | 9%10.76 | 4%23.92 |
| Boston Utd | 5%19.01 | 5%20.79 | 8%12.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Carlisle wins- W Carlisle vs Boston Utd 6-2
- W Boston Utd vs Carlisle 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carlisle's side.