Sutton
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.06
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sutton | Draw | Boston Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Sutton and Boston Utd are rated almost level (1036 and 1037).
-
Home advantage Favours Sutton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sutton's chance of winning and takes the same from Boston Utd's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sutton
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Sutton score 0.5 a match against an average side (18th in National League); Boston Utd concede 3.4 (18th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sutton
Sutton WWLLD, gained 21 rating points; Boston Utd WWLLL, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Boston Utd
Sutton won 0, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SuttonBoston UtdSutton
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
10/09
10/24
10/28
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sutton | Draw | Boston Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton | 25%4.00 | 3%29.67 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.10 | 14%7.08 | 8%12.55 |
| Boston Utd | 4%22.73 | 7%14.77 | 18%5.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sutton wins- L Boston Utd vs Sutton 1-0
- D Sutton vs Boston Utd 1-1
- L Boston Utd vs Sutton 2-1
- L Sutton vs Boston Utd 0-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sutton's side.