Corinthians
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.05
Botafogo RJ
25%
Fair odds 4.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Corinthians | Draw | Botafogo RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Botafogo RJ
Botafogo RJ are rated 31 points above Corinthians (1368 to 1337), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Corinthians
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Corinthians's chance of winning and takes the same from Botafogo RJ's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Corinthians
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Corinthians score 0.7 a match against an average side (18th in Brasileirão); Botafogo RJ concede 2.0 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Corinthians
Corinthians WLDLL, lost 8 rating points; Botafogo RJ LLWDL, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Corinthians won 3, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CorinthiansBotafogo RJCorinthians
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/30
Botafogo RJ
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/16
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Corinthians | Draw | Botafogo RJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 31%3.25 | 4%25.77 | 1%— |
| Level | 16%6.29 | 16%6.28 | 7%13.72 |
| Botafogo RJ | 3%37.88 | 6%17.64 | 17%5.87 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Corinthians wins4Botafogo RJ wins- L Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians 3-1
- D Corinthians vs Botafogo RJ 2-2
- D Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians 1-1
- L Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians 2-1
- L Corinthians vs Botafogo RJ 0-1
- W Corinthians vs Botafogo RJ 1-0
- L Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians 3-0
- W Corinthians vs Botafogo RJ 1-0
- W Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians 1-3
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Corinthians's side.