Celta
18%
Fair odds 5.66Bookmakers 24%
Bournemouth
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.68Bookmakers 50%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Bournemouth: 60% here, 50% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celta | Draw | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Best price on offer | 4.11 | 3.73 | 1.93 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth are rated 138 points above Celta (1629 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Celta's chance of winning and takes the same from Bournemouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bournemouth
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.9. Celta score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in La Liga); Bournemouth concede 0.8 (4th best defence in Premier League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bournemouth
Celta LLDWW, barely moved; Bournemouth WWWWW, gained 52 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Celta
Bookmakers rate Celta higher than the model does: Celta 24% against the model's 18%, Bournemouth 50% against 60%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CeltaBournemouthCelta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bournemouth
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celta | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 12%8.22 | 6%15.70 | 5%18.87 |
| Level | 5%18.69 | 13%7.76 | 24%4.16 |
| Bournemouth | 1%— | 3%38.02 | 31%3.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.