Ipswich
24%
Fair odds 4.14Bookmakers 25%
Bournemouth
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.92Bookmakers 49%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ipswich | Draw | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| Best price on offer | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bournemouth
Bournemouth are rated 96 points above Ipswich (1629 to 1534), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ipswich
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ipswich's chance of winning and takes the same from Bournemouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bournemouth
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Ipswich score 1.4 a match against an average side (16th in Premier League); Bournemouth concede 0.8 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bournemouth
Ipswich DDLWL, barely moved; Bournemouth WWWWW, gained 52 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Ipswich
Bournemouth will have had 3 days' rest, Ipswich 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Ipswich 25%, Bournemouth 49%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
IpswichBournemouthIpswich
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
18 conceded
05/02
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
10/31
Bournemouth
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ipswich | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 16%6.19 | 7%14.99 | 5%19.96 |
| Level | 7%13.46 | 13%7.80 | 21%4.84 |
| Bournemouth | 1%98.04 | 3%30.03 | 27%3.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Ipswich wins1Bournemouth wins- W Bournemouth vs Ipswich 1-2
- L Ipswich vs Bournemouth 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ipswich's side.