Vitoria
29%
Fair odds 3.49
Bragantino
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bragantino
Bragantino are rated 51 points above Vitoria (1370 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Bragantino's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bragantino
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.4. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Bragantino concede 1.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bragantino
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Bragantino WWLDW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Vitoria won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaBragantinoVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bragantino
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/03
10/07
10/13
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 24%4.22 | 8%12.32 | 4%26.81 |
| Level | 5%19.65 | 17%5.96 | 17%5.80 |
| Bragantino | 0%— | 2%45.87 | 23%4.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Vitoria wins3Bragantino wins- L Bragantino vs Vitoria 2-0
- L Bragantino vs Vitoria 4-0
- W Vitoria vs Bragantino 1-0
- W Vitoria vs Bragantino 1-0
- L Bragantino vs Vitoria 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vitoria's side.