Fredrikstad
30%
Fair odds 3.28Bookmakers 36%
Brann
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fredrikstad | Draw | Brann | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.65 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brann
Brann are rated 88 points above Fredrikstad (1432 to 1345), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fredrikstad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fredrikstad's chance of winning and takes the same from Brann's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brann
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Fredrikstad score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in Eliteserien); Brann concede 1.7 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brann
Fredrikstad LLLDD, lost 24 rating points; Brann DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Fredrikstad
Brann will have had 3 days' rest, Fredrikstad 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Fredrikstad
Bookmakers rate Fredrikstad higher than the model does: Fredrikstad 36% against the model's 30%, Brann 39% against 44%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Fredrikstad won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FredrikstadBrannFredrikstad
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Brann
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fredrikstad | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 23%4.36 | 8%12.61 | 5%21.37 |
| Level | 7%13.83 | 14%7.16 | 18%5.58 |
| Brann | 1%— | 3%34.60 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Fredrikstad wins3Brann wins- L Brann vs Fredrikstad 3-1
- L Brann vs Fredrikstad 1-0
- W Fredrikstad vs Brann 3-0
- L Fredrikstad vs Brann 0-4
- W Brann vs Fredrikstad 0-2
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fredrikstad's side.