KFUM Oslo
31%
Fair odds 3.24
Brann
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| KFUM Oslo | Draw | Brann | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brann
Brann are rated 96 points above KFUM Oslo (1432 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours KFUM Oslo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to KFUM Oslo's chance of winning and takes the same from Brann's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brann
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. KFUM Oslo score 0.8 a match against an average side (13th in Eliteserien); Brann concede 1.7 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo DDDWW, gained 22 rating points; Brann DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
KFUM Oslo won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KFUM OsloBrannKFUM Oslo
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Brann
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | KFUM Oslo | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo | 23%4.39 | 8%12.74 | 5%20.49 |
| Level | 8%13.07 | 13%7.43 | 18%5.55 |
| Brann | 1%— | 3%33.33 | 21%4.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1KFUM Oslo wins2Brann wins- L Brann vs KFUM Oslo 2-1
- D Brann vs KFUM Oslo 1-1
- W KFUM Oslo vs Brann 2-0
- L Brann vs KFUM Oslo 2-0
- D KFUM Oslo vs Brann 0-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from KFUM Oslo's side.