Nurnberg
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62
Braunschweig
17%
Fair odds 5.74
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nurnberg | Draw | Braunschweig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nurnberg
Nurnberg are rated 114 points above Braunschweig (1412 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nurnberg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Nurnberg's chance of winning and takes the same from Braunschweig's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nurnberg
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.1. Nurnberg score 1.3 a match against an average side (2nd in 2. Bundesliga); Braunschweig concede 1.8 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Nurnberg WLDDW, gained 11 rating points; Braunschweig LWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Nurnberg
Nurnberg won 5, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NurnbergBraunschweigNurnberg
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
13 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Braunschweig
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nurnberg | Draw | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg | 37%2.70 | 4%27.86 | 1%99.01 |
| Level | 21%4.82 | 11%8.80 | 6%16.53 |
| Braunschweig | 4%22.99 | 5%19.38 | 11%9.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Nurnberg wins1Braunschweig wins- D Braunschweig vs Nurnberg 1-1
- W Nurnberg vs Braunschweig 2-1
- W Braunschweig vs Nurnberg 1-4
- W Nurnberg vs Braunschweig 1-0
- W Nurnberg vs Braunschweig 2-1
- D Braunschweig vs Nurnberg 2-2
- W Nurnberg vs Braunschweig 2-0
- L Braunschweig vs Nurnberg 4-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nurnberg's side.